Stick tap to Zach for letting me steal the Hunter S. Thompson-esque title. I would quote HST every post if I had an excuse to.

So, I've vanished. Here's the deal. I wrote a nice somewhat combined LA/STL recap about not being cynical, looking forward, all that. It was pretty long -- and this is from the guy who writes long stuff to being with. I was on my last sentence. A totally non-Wings related factoid. I went to bold a name. Instead of hitting CTRL-B for bold, I hit CTRL-W. Which apparently closes your tab. And no, Bloguin doesn't auto save. And yes, it kills me. And no, I'm still not smart enough to save in the middle of posts. I'm still writing here, despite what all my instincts tell me.

Briefly on the cynicism thing -- it's tough. A few weeks ago I declared I would not be cynical, or less cynical, as it were. The Wings have won maybe one or two games since then. It's tough to be positive. But you know what sucks: seeing a tough loss and then seeing a million people on Twitter whining and moaning. I can't stand it, at all. These are the worst types of fans to me. Everyone knows we're going to be fine, everyone knows we're capable of winning a playoff series. Yet, the Wings lose another tough one and I have to hear ten different hilarious zingers. Just stop. What are you accomplishing? What you did do is help me condense my Twitter/RSS feeds.

What's so frustrating is the teams around us suck, and they're playing terrible hockey. Nashville, Calgary, Dallas, us, Anaheim, Minnesota, St. Louis. Wins in their last ten games? Three, Three, six, two, six, five, four. It's frustrating that every night we win, everyone we don't need to win also wins. And when we lose, we somehow kinda keep pace. It's the weirdest thing. Dallas is the hottest team in that group and they just traded for the most injury prone goalie in the league. Curious.

But if you want to be optimistic, and realistic, you'll realize that we're basically being served a playoff spot on a silver platter. How screwed would we be if even one other team went on a Los Angeles style run and went 9-1 in their past ten. Nashville and Calgary just cannot put us away, and they've had all the opportunities to. I don't know how anyone can be discouraged by Detroit putting up 50+ shots on San Jose. James Mirtle tweeted the other day that Detroit is 2-5-5 in the past month. He said that like it's news. Is it news to any Wings fan that Detroit is 2-5-5? It didn't exactly happen overnight. By my count, it happened over the course of a month. Huge story there. And that's not a slight to Mirtle, he does outstanding work, but people made a huge deal about it. Trust me, it wasn't news to me.

Yeah, we lost, I get it. But the types of things people come up with blow my mind. It's unprofessional and it's petty, but I'm singling out the one guy who's driving me up the wall right now. He's driving me up the wall because I know he knows what he's talking about. He's the only non-troll who supports trading Nick Lidstrom. And he's the only guy I know who will blame a loss like that on Lidstrom. It's Keith B. After the game, Keith asked where Nick's defensive game was on the Joe Thornton goal. Yes, that was the goal that was a split second rebound off the boards which Thornton put in despite being shoved into the net simultaneously. I know people call Nick superhuman, but it's mentally absurd (that's a nicer term for the word I want to use) to suggest he could have got to Joe any faster than he did.

Look, Lidstrom is human. He's having an off season. An off season for him is just not the same as it is for anyone else. He's been virtually flawless in the past decade. No other defenseman has come close. Sometimes I watch Zdeno Chara and chuckle that he won the Norris last year. Guy's good for one big mistake per game. Still has those awkward moments where it looks like he doesn't know he's 6'9. Wings fans are spoiled rotten that Lidstrom has been so perfect, and there's some illusion that all elite defensemen in the league are as mistake free as that. Not true. Not at all. Lidstrom won't win the Norris this year, but flat out, I guarantee you, 100%, there is not a better defensive defenseman in the league. And his offense is coming around recently, so it's not too hard to see to guess at who is still the best overall defenseman in the league.

But that's ok if you disagree. Hockey is great for opinions. Lidstrom has really only turned it on the past month. A month does not make a season. I'm just saying, right now, if I had to win one game, there is no defenseman I would rather have. If we were down three goals, maybe I'd take a fourth forward like Mike Green. At 0-0, there is no one better.

Too many people just look at stats these days, and Keith is the best possible example. (For the record, if you want to look at stats, they do support the idea that Lidstrom is still tops in his own end). Fed up, once he told me that Lidstrom is merely a "top ten" defensemen instead of a top two, I flat out asked, "who?" Here's the list I was given:

Technically, he said Bouwmeester and Hamhuis are "right behind" Nick. That in itself is offensive. Let's think about it.

Mike Green is a perfect example of why +/- is a terrible stat. Keith points out that he's a +27 (now a +28). Plus-minus is only useful in context. Mike Green almost always plays with Ovechkin, and Ovechkin is +15 ahead of Green. Jeff Schultz is a second pairing defenseman and he is +10 above Green. Elite defenseman are always, always head and shoulders their teams best +/- player. The Capitals don't have a singular regular player in the minuses. On a team boasting a whopping EIGHT players in the pluses, Lidstrom is a +20. Plus-five ahead of Brian Rafalski (second place) and +8 ahead of third place, some Selke-winner named Pavel Datsyuk. Who? But to be perfectly fair, one of those eight players in the pluses is Kris Newbury. Oh wait...

Tell me, who's +/- is more impressive?

The only two defensemen I would give the Norris over Lidstrom, despite his three dormant offensive months, is Keith and Weber. Both two solid season offensively, with solid defensive play. But both, especially Keith, make a significant amount of mistakes. Anyone know offhand how many penalties Weber took against Detroit last game (correction: second to last game, but the point still stands)? Three. Can you name the last three penalties Lidstrom took? You can't, because he quietly goes about his business and doesn't hurt the team by trying to play tough all the time.

From a guy who watched Doughty his entire OHL career, Doughty will never be an elite defensive defenseman. He'll probably win a Norris -- and he's made huge strides, but I'm pretty sure he'd slap you if you told him he was a better defenseman than Lidstrom. Not yet, but an incredible year.

But Bouwmeester and Hamhuis are absolutely offensive. Bouwmeester was supposed to be the piece that put Calgary over the top this season, and look where they are. He's the best skating defenseman, sure, but he's never become that elite defenseman he was supposed to be and anyone in Calgary or Florida will tell you that. And Hamhuis? Dude, he'd be a #5 on Detroit. I guarantee if you watch a highlight reel you'll see Hamhuis on the wrong end once or twice. Ryan Suter averages three more minutes per game than Hammy. Kevin Klein is like 45 seconds away. Hamhuis is a huge bust for what he was promised to be, his inclusion in there is clearly on a list from a guy who does not watch the Nashville Predators.

Asinine.

But apparently Keith will never read this, because he let me know that I'm full of shit for not agreeing with him. I don't know why he'd read someone who's full of shit, but I digress. Apparently I've built him up as a god, even though I've acknowledged nearly every day he's having an off season. Because he couldn't cover Jumbo Joe on a rebound off the boards. Oh, the world we live in today.

The internet needs to invent a punch in the face button. Also, please refer to BDS' new poll.

In conclusion, some people need to shut the hell up, some people need to smarten the hell up, and some people need to calm the hell down. This team is not winning but there is still so much time left. A win against red hot Ottawa tomorrow would be perfection. Andreas Lilja might even play. We should be perfectly healthy after the break, and nothing this team has done in the past month suggests to me that we can't hit sixth or seventh before the end of the year. And if worst comes to worst, there's always San Jose in the first round.

Comments (31)

Baroque said:

... A Lidstrom off season is a very good season for anyone else. Like an off golf game for Tiger Woods. I hope Williams goes to some team where he really gets a good chance to earn a good contract for next year. He's a useful player and I was a little surprised that Columbus didn't sign him last year, and he's been fine for Detroit in his role, but I think he's just the most valuable movable asset the will clear up the needed salary cap room in the simplest way. (I'd like to see him go to the Eastern conference to minimize the chances of payback, though.) Interested to hear that you aren't seeing elite status for Drew Doughty considering that everyone else seems to just adore him. (Please don't think I'm calling you full of shit, as I have no special defenseman-evaluating abilities.) The unexpected success at a young age combined with media hype of a player on a team actually having more success than they have in quite a while is a powerful force. I think the Norris nomination for Green last year was entirely hype-driven. Then again, Don Cherry was comparing Phaneuf to Lidstrom and favoring the ugly Torontonian, so all kinds of people evaluate defensemen different ways. I love Lidstrom, he's still the steady rock of the team even with his struggles, and can't see him being traded for anyone because when a team trades and actual star, not just a serviceable player who they think of as a star, they come out better only very rarely. He provides more to the team than he costs in salary, and that makes him too valuable to trade in my mind. Players out-performing their contracts are not the ones to move out.

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February 12, 2010
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tdawg said:

	... Wow....I couldn't agree more w/ the hands in the air comment. Bertuzzi is the king of that and it has to stop. It draws more penalties than it avoids.
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February 12, 2010
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breakaway said:

... Disclaimer: this is a rant directed at the insane people who think Lidstrom should be traded... As far as I know there's only one, but more insane people could be hiding out amongst the wilderness of the Internet. (And they're probably fans of other teams who would cream their pants to have Nick.) Why the hell should Detroit trade its best defenseman? It's mind-boggling. Nick is the only player I feel completely comfortable with having on the ice because I trust him, and I trust him because he's smart. He knows how to do things like compensate for the fact that he's not the fastest skater. He's extremely intelligent, he has the experience of a 39-year-old, he's still in great shape, and his skills have made him into a franchise player. You don't trade franchise players. They're cornerstones of organizations. And you don't trade Nick because he's getting up there in years and could net a good return (I admit I'd be curious though to know what Detroit would get for Nick motherfucking Lidstrom). You count on his skill, experience, and veteran presence to add to the team. You let him finish his years out in Detroit. And then you raise his goddamn #5 up to the rooftops. Plus I'm holding onto the belief that he's a good luck charm since the Wings haven't missed the playoffs since he's been on the roster. But seriously, Mike Green? I don't get how you could trust Mike Green without the puck in his own end versus Nick Lidstrom. Stupid. Anyway, you are definitely not full of shit, Kyle. Also, I missed your posts. Four days is too long.

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February 12, 2010
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KyleKujawa said:

... Baroque, Doughty is a really interesting case to me. Everyone in the media talks about how nobody ever really watches Los Angeles... which makes me wonder how they can also get away with building up Doughty's Norris resume. I do watch LA, and Doughty has had some rough games, including ones against Detroit. He's super aggressive. Just like with goaltenders (look at Steve Mason), it takes a while for NHLers to learn tendencies. Doughty is an elite skater so he'll always be able to make up for his mistakes, but the bottom line is he's still making them. It just doesn't strike me as anything people will realize until the playoffs.

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February 12, 2010
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waltdetroit1 said:

... Doughty is real good but I would take Zach Thrasher over him. Kyle: With all of the scouts at the Joe, do you think that a big trade is coming? The rumors are Hamhuis a free agent soon & is available. What do the preds need for him? Do you think the wings could package 3-4 players for him? (Ex. Williams, Kronner,& Miller or Eaves) Nick isn't going anywhere. At worst, at the end of the season he takes his ball & goes home (sorry, I have been cooped up in my DC unit for a week)

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KyleKujawa said:

... To be honest, scouts at a rink don't mean anything. I've seen people make a big deal about them this year, but it's not unusual at all to see half the league at any given game at this point in the season. Remember that teams just don't scout for players they want -- they need to make decisions on who they don't want, who they're not willing to ask for in potential deals. What do you think a team relies on when a player becomes a free agent in the summer? Their viewings of that player throughout the season. It's a constant process. You always need to be aware of how good players on other teams are. The point is, teams aren't always (in fact, I'd say rarely) scouting for an impending move. It's just part of the game. Sometimes teams scout just to be seen. Maybe Team A is working on a big deal with Team B, but Team B is asking too much. Team A scouts Team C, and Team B finds out about it. Scandalous! Team B then figures Team A is after a similar player from Team C, and is more likely to sweeten the offer. I would steer clear of Hamhuis. He's not better than Stuart or Kronwall. He's in line for a huge pay day when he hits the free agent market, and mark my words, whoever gets him will be disappointed. If he were so elite he would have gotten SOME Olympic consideration -- I didn't hear his name brought up once.

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February 12, 2010
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waltdetroit1 said:

... Good point about the Olympics but Hamhuis is CN & that does make it a bit harder to make the team than any other country (Ex. Kolosov & Ole). I have read that Hamhuis was very good, not quite Weber but very steady. I guess one shouldn't believe everything in print > People who are trying to compare some D man to Kung Lids often make a common mistake. Because he is not playing to the level like 3-4 years ago, they discount the contributions he does make. After a slow start, he is still B+/A and better than most. There are (at 7 per team) 210 D men in the NHL. If you are better than 200 & worse than 9, then you are better than any D on about 20 teams. not 2 bad.

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February 12, 2010
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waltdetroit1 said:

	... PS: As for+/-, the Gr8 had about 110 pts and was like +13 last year
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February 12, 2010
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Keith B said:

... I never blamed the loss on Lidstrom! Thats fucking bull shit! All I said was where was he on the first goal!!!! Where was he? Oh he got beat bad by Thorton! Letting 2 goals up to SJ is amazing! Clearly the problem is our offense. I love Lidstrom. I'm just saying he got beat bad on goal 1. Kyle don't fucking lie to everyone else saying I blamed Lidstrom for the loss. It's pretty fucking pathetic to use my twitter comments so you can have something to write about nevermid misquoting me and giving out my name! Complete lack of ethical journalism.

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February 13, 2010
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KyleKujawa said:

	... Loss should have been goal, that's a mistake. What exactly do you think he's supposed to do when the puck ricochets off the boards like that? This isn't journalism, it's a blog. I'm pretty sure I prefaced it with that too. You're the one bringing it to a personal level, and conveniently ignoring the actual argument I made against whatever exactly your point is here.
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Keith B said:

... If Green scores 2 goal and lets 1 in his team gained a goal. If Lidstrom doesn't score and lets 0 goals in his team is equal! I don't give a shit if Green doesn't play D, his offense minus his defense is more of a net gain to his team then Lidstrom is! Also, I said Lidstrom is a great defensive player still maybe 1 of the best but overall D he's not top 5! So your point about him being one of the best in the D zone means nothing. Net value > then defensive value! So that's 1 D that's better. Keith and Weber makes 3. Doughty is amazing this year. He's carry the team (with Quick). If you're going to say stats don't matter then this is key. Doughty is 20 and he has put the team on his back. And guess what a bad LA team is ahead of Detroit in the standings! If you're going to throw stats out the window then team placement should matter. Doughty has been an amazing leader this year. I'm sick of Wings fans that can't see wrong with this team. This team under performs. They show up and rely on talent to do everything. Last year they floated in the playoffs and almost got beat by a bad LA Ducks (8th place last year and 11th this year) and by a more scrappy more willing Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh did not have the talent of Detroit but they stole the cup on effort! This year without the same talent and with injuries, just showing up isn't doing it! We're in 10th if you hadn't noticed! This team is too good to be in 10th especially in a bad West that has no good teams after SJ and Chicago. Vancouver, Phoenix (fucking Phoenix), Doughty's LA, Colorado (can you name a great player on this team?), Nashville (costs controlled Nashville!), Calgary (desperate to break the team up) and even Dallas are in front of us! I'm not the only one saying we have a leadership problem. One of your fellow authors last week said the problem with the team was on ice leadership! So the next time you go douche like don't flip out on me for disagreeing with your all is well line. I don't think all is well. This team should be top 5 in a bad West. Without injuries we should be 1st, 2nd or 3rd. But until Lidstrom woke up (about a month ago) the only reason this team was even in the playoff race was due to a rookie goalie and a now completely worn out Stuart. Your strategy has turned to a belief that if you don't admit there is a problem then there isn't a problem.

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Keith B said:

... BTW all I ever said on moving Lidstrom was if he were on not in the playoff race (spot 12 or lower by the deadline) was that we should consider moving him. I do not support moving Lidstrom to move him. I like him. He's amazing. But if he going to retire this offseason and I have a choice of getting nothing back or something back (picks and prospects) I'd rather get something back. Is that hard to understand? Plus even if Lidstrom doesn't retire and we traded him he can come back since he will be a FA. St. Louis did this all the time with Keith Tkachuk, where they traded him got picks and the re-signed him. And once again I'm not saying Green should win the Norris. All I'm saying is that a player that scores more then he lets in is more valuable to a team than a player that doesn't let anything in but also doesn't score. So Green scores 5 goals and lets in 3 he's still +2. More importantly he's netted the Caps 2 goals. If Lidstrom scores 1 goal and lets 0 in hes netted +1. That's why Green is more valuable. Just because your a defensman doesn't mean your only value is not letting goals in. Your missing half of the equation! Offensive value + defensive value = net value. The experts statisticians agree that you're missing half the equation. http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=448 You can also see that Green is a higher overall value to his team (21.1 GVT) then Lidstrom is to the Wings (15.8 GVT). http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=290 http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=286 And that was before Lidstrom was in his 3 month rut which he's thankfully woken from. Also, this year Keith (13.6), Green (12.1), Doughty (10.3), Pronger (10.3), Campbell (9.2), Kaberle (8.7), Seabrook (8.4), Ehrhoff (8.1), Robidas (8.0) and the 19 year old Meyers (7.9) have more value (GVT) then Lidstrom. Let's see that's 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10! Wow. 10 guys. So not top 5, right? http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=425 I trust these guys who knows stats more then you and your love for Lidstrom. Sorry he's not top 5 anymore. And believe me I wish he was. http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=442

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February 13, 2010
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felix said:

... Well jeez, the above comment proves to me that you don't know what yr talking about Keith. I didn't know the Ducks played in LA! Plus, they were WAY better than that 8 seed let on - they underperformed early in the season, but in my opinion they were absolutely the team to beat in the playoffs last year. We did it in seven, and we only lost to Pittsburgh on account of how rough a series Anaheim was. They did NOT steal the cup on effort - in fact I'm pretty sure Nick lost a testicle to a Corey Perry spear or something but that went widely unreported in the media. To say we should be higher than 10th with the injuries this team has had this season is ridiculous. It's AMAZING we've managed to keep pace with the Preds, Flames and Ducks - they aren't bad clubs at all. To say we've got a weak west? Jesus H. Tapdancing Christ, get off the Capitals bandwagon for just a minute. We've still got San Jose (who we've owned every game this season, this last loss was a fluky Nabokov one-off), Chicago, obviously, and PHX, LA, CO are all really strong young clubs who haven't been bitten by the injury-bug as hard as we have. Bottom line, we will be there in the seven or eight slot by season's-end. If Osgood finds the time to pull his head out of his ass, we should have a shot at the Western Conference finals, if not the Cup finals.

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Keith B said:

... Also, Puck Prospectus agrees with me that overall talent (GVT or Goals vs. Thresholds) is Realtive Plus/Minus + Offensive GVT + Defensive GVT + Shootout GVT. And guess what the number defensive player with the 2nd highest GTV is Green with 12.1 GVT! Keith has 13.6 GVT, Green has 12.1 GVT, Doughty (told you he was better) has 10.3 GVT, Pronger has 10.3 GVT, Campbell has 9.2 GVT, Kaberle has 8.7 GVT, Seabrook has 8.4 GVT, Ehrhoff has 8.1 GVT, Robidas has 8.0 GVT and the 19 year old Meyers has 7.9 GVT. Let's see that is 1, 2 (Green > Lidstrom), 3 (Doughty > Lidstrom), 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 players with higher GVT then Lidstrom. So maybe he isn't a top 5 D anymore? Hmm. Maybe. What is Lidstrom's GVT? No idea since the list only includes the 10 best D and guess what, he's not there. Puck Prospectus is a bunch of ultra mathematical stat geeks. I trust their numbers over your love of Lidstrom. It wouldn't make me happier than seeing Lidstrom #1 overall but he's getting older! I can admit that. I can see that he's not what he used to be. Why can't you just admit he's not top 5 anymore? BTW here's the link so all you Keith haters can see I have stats on my side. http://www.puckprospectus.com/...icleid=425

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February 13, 2010
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KyleKujawa said:

	... Cool. Well, I watch the games, and I watch other games, too. Every night. Lidstrom's my choice.
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waltdetroit1 said:

... KB> The stats do not take in how many breakaways Lids stops whether at the blue line or below, or great 1st or clearing passes. > I watch the Caps all the time and Green is pretty good & a great scorer. Often he is like a 4th forward on the ice but he has many problems getting the puck out of his own end and well playing "D"(as the caps D in general). There are reasons the Caps win or lose Games by scores of 6-5. The Caps also have great forwards who forecheck & backcheck endlessly. The Caps main need is for a veteran D, why, because the current crop does not have the skills like Lids.

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February 13, 2010
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kuick said:

... Gotta love the fact that Keith B is here and still reading the blog. Dan Hamhuis on a list of top 10 defensemen in the league is hysterical and proves that you really have no idea what you're talking about. Every argument you're making with your comments Kyle has already responded to in the main post, so stop repeating yourself with statistics that are taken out of context and watch the game of hockey for once.

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breakaway said:

... "So Green scores 5 goals and lets in 3 he's still +2. More importantly he's netted the Caps 2 goals. If Lidstrom scores 1 goal and lets 0 in hes netted +1. That's why Green is more valuable. Just because your a defensman doesn't mean your only value is not letting goals in." So why are there three forwards out on the ice then? It's their job to score goals. If a defenseman helps out, that's great. But his job first and foremost is to do all he can do to stop the other team from scoring. It's why the position exists. It's ridiculous to say Lidstrom isn't as good a defenseman as Green just because Nick is doing the technical job better but not the added bonus of also doing a forward's job and scoring goals.

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February 13, 2010
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Coffey said:

... Keith's arguement that net value is the best factor in comparing defensemen is valid. However, that does not take in account how much his team, defensive system and goaltender have contributed to the overall stats. When I looked at the Power rankings list at http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=425 and I saw Brian Campbell ranked #5 overall. Is Brian Campbell really better than Nick Lidstrom? Is #8 Enrhoff, #9 Robidas and #10 Myers better than Lidstrom? This invalidates the statistical part of Keith's arguement. I don't think there are any statistics that can absolutely win this arquement. It's really a matter of observation and opinion.

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February 13, 2010
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waltdetroit1 said:

... The old adage is that stats can prove anything you want them to prove. There is 1 stat that stands out: "Who has won the most cups and has been nominated and/or won the award for Best D in the league over the past 20 years?" Kung is (rightly so) 1 of the top 3 D ever. When Lids calmly poke checks the puck away, which he does 5-10 times a game, it is just Lids. If Green does it 1x a game, he has made a great pla.

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February 13, 2010
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KyleKujawa said:

... I just find it humorous that I talked about not just looking at stats when looking at Mike Green... and Keith comes in with two posts of just stats. I'm just not much of a numbers person. You can really look at stats to make any kind of argument. There's no stat for what Lidstrom did less than three times against San Jose. With a (faster) forward breathing down his neck, Lidstrom used his elite positioning to keep the puck out of harm's way and prevent a breakaway. There's no stat for the fact that Lidstrom RARELY misses a breakout pass, and has almost none intercepted. There's a stat for blocked shots, but there's no stat for how many shots a particular player has had blocked, and Lidstrom is still the best in the league at getting a shot through the lane even if it means it's ten feet wide and will only go in by some miracle tip. Lidstrom has never been known for his elite skills and finesse. It's the fact that he does all the little things right which won him something like 18 Norrises (sorry, not a numbers guy). It's just pretty sad a Wings fan of all people is so easily drawn in by the flash and pizazz of Mike Green's offensive totals. How many assists would Nick get if he was feeding Ovechkin his perfect long breakout passes? And how much ice time would Mike Green get if he was in a system that actually held him defensively accountable? Each player is just in the best possible circumstance for themselves. Green is going to produce huge numbers as long as he's playing with Ovechkin. But I don't see the point in rattling off these numbers when I can watch a Caps game at any time and chuckle a few times as I see Green float around the defensive zone covering nobody, turn the puck over four times, take a stupid penalty, and get undressed on a highlight reel goal. These are things that don't exist in Nick Lidstrom's game, even this year when he's struggled (though I can't understand how anyone could consider his past month a struggle). The only stat I'd really like to hear from Mike Green is how opposing star players do when they come into town. Ovechkin and Gaborik were shut down by Lidstrom. For all the bad losses, there's hardly been a game where the other team's star player has had three or four points. Can't say the same for Green, mainly because he's not on the ice against the other team's best. Jeff Schultz is.

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February 13, 2010
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Keith B said:

... Felix, Anaheim is LA. Yeah wow I got wrong the name by a little bit at 2 in the mourning. That proves everything! Also, if the Ducks are way better than the 8th seed last year why are in 11th this year? I think that proves that the 8th seed last year was justified. The West is weak, sorry. I said SJ and Chicago are good so arguing with me on how good SJ proves nothing. Vancouver is good. But LA? Phoenix? They aren't more talented then Detroit's injured lineup! You're going to say that besides SJ, Chicago and Vancouver every other team ahead of has players of Datysuk's, Zetterberg's, Holmstrom's, Lidstrom's, and Stuart's quality? Each team has 1 good line, that's it. An injured Detroit still has a decent 3rd line. Most NHL teams don't have one. How can you say that playoff contention relies on Ozzie? He clearly is the #2 goalie and we held SJ to 2 goals! 2 goals! I think our problem is that offense converted on 4% of their shots against SJ (2 of 50). How does saying Green > Lidstrom equate me to being on the Caps bandwagon? I hate the Caps. I root against them. I hate them sooo much I wore a fucking Sean Avery (hate him too but my roommate had his jersey) jersey to game 2 of the playoffs last year in DC. While I did get a black eye and a fat lip from wearing the jersey (and my roommates typical NY/NJ ass hole comments) I got to celebrate the Rangers going up 2-0 on the Caps, only to see the blow the fucking series. I live in DC since I go to college here but I'm not a Caps fan. It's a bandwagon hockey crowd that only likes hockey for the goals and big hits. It doesn't understand that every time a Caps player goes out of his way to make a big hit (often Ovechkin) he's completely taking himself out of the play and hurting his team. Their love of hockey is based around the same reasons they love WWE and NASCAR, high octane sport with many crashes. They aren't true hockey fans and they sit their with the Penguins and Ducks fans I absolutely hate. Like skull f@uck hate. Breakaway, if you think D should only play defense then you're saying that Datysuk and Z should only focus on offense and quit playing their 2 way game. I also think no player should be untouchable. I don't want Lidstrom traded. But if a team like Chicago came and offered Keith and Hossa and Kane (yes I know the deal is complete bull shit but that's the point) for Lidstrom and Maltby (cap reasons--> joke) you wouldn't take it? I never pushed for him to be traded. If we are out of contention I don't see the harm in taking the phone call. If we could get a 15 year stud player for 1 year of Lidstrom you wouldn't do that? Kuick, Okay Hamimus was a bad call I admit it. But thanks for the oh so helpful comment. Kyle's saying that by watching Doughty play in the OHL he knows that Doughty won't be an elite D. I don't know why but I think I'm going to trust Yzerman and his selection of Doughty on team Canada more than Kyle. What more does Doughty need to do to prove he's elite? http://www.thehockeynews.com/a...ction.html Lidstrom is having a bad year. That doesn't refute my point that he's not a top 5 D. Why can't we say last year was overly good and this year is overly bad and he lies somewhere in between? To me that's not top 5.

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February 13, 2010
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Keith B said:

... I don't understand this. Green has a D next to his name. So what? If a RB catches the ball and scores I don't care. If a WR takes a reverse (run) and scores I don't care. Why should I care if the D is the scorer. Expecting D to just play D and forwards to just play forward is an outdated view of hockey. If I get 30 goals out of a D why should that count less than a forward? Waltdetroit, I was going to say that on TV you might not see that the Caps don't back check but then I read that you too live in DC (and are also buried under 40 inches of snow). Ovechkin and Green's most constant criticisms are that both don't back check hard. Ovechkin glides back to center ice hoping his team will get the puck before he has to play D and Green often glides back even when the opposing team is on a 2 on 1 break. I guess you and I just see different things when we watch the Caps but in either case this isn't really important in the overall context of this post. Also, while stats don't tell us everything they don't tell us the same information for every player. It's not just Lidstrom that doesn't get first passes scored. I don't see how its anything more than wishful thinking to believe that the skills that aren't easily computed into stats helps Lidstrom. Other D might be just as good but don't get the credit either. Also, Puck Prospectus has somewhat taken these stats into effect. If Lidstrom consistently stops breakaways at a higher rate and makes more amazing first passes then over the course of a season when he's on the ice the line will score more and let less goals in. Breakaway, first off I said Lidstrom is better defensively than Green. Your line "It's ridiculous to say Lidstrom isn't as good a defenseman as Green just because Nick is doing the technical job better but not the added bonus of also doing a forward's job and scoring goals" proves my point. D is half the defensive player that Lidstrom is but he adds a 4th forward on the ice. That means he's more valuable! The whole D must play D and forwards must play offense line is outdated. Datysuk's and Zetterberg's value comes from both their offensive and defensive value. That would be the same as saying that Corey Perry (chose Perry for Kyle) is a better forward than Datsyuk because he scores more. This is blatantly wrong. Datysuk doesn't score as much, true, but he's so much better at playing D that even if he is only 75% the offensive player that Perry is (I think he's normally 90% but this year he isn't) his net value is still 1.5 times that of Perry because overall play is what matters!

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February 13, 2010
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Keith B said:

... Kyle, this is insane. I make a douche comment (yes douche comment and I'm sorry) about Lidstrom and this is the response. You create an entire post to publicly attack my comments. I love your site. I agree with you on 95% of your posts. But ever since I mentioned a possible trade of Lidstrom you've become super sensitive to any criticism of him. He's not your girlfriend (attempt at humor). No player should ever be untouchable. Ever. And the insane thing is I never said move Lidstrom now. I said if we're out of contention then consider moving him. I think attacking me like this with comments from twitter is below the belt and below you. The whole its a blog not journalism line is a little pathetic. Yeah you're not a journalist but that's a cop out. Your in the journalistic field and you should abide by some basic standards and ethics from the field. Also, if your going to get into a pissing match with me and tell me to "Bring it (And shut up)" and I comment back to you with stats proving my point (which doesn't mean I'm right it just means I found some stats) don't respond with "Cool. Well, I watch the games, and I watch other games, too. Every night. Lidstrom's my choice". Come on that's lame and really cheap after this entire post. Just so you know what Lidstrom did wrong I'll tell you but at this time I think the point is moot. What's the first thing they tell you in mini-mites (well after have fun)? That when you play defense you need to be between the forward and the goal. This is the same in basketball, soccer, water polo even. Lidstrom got caught watching the puck and never saw Thorton slip in behind him (enter prison rape joke here). If Lidstrom was in position on the rebound the puck would never have gotten to Thorton's stick since Lidstrom would have been there. That seems kind of obvious to me. Lidstrom know's better than to focus more on the forward with the puck at the circle then the huge forward behind him in front of Howard. It's a mistake and he's been making more of them then ever. In fact 3 times in the 10 minutes surrounding Thorton's goal Lidstrom makes the same mistake. Look he's the best in the world at poke checking pucks that just crossed the blue line but he's not a robot. He's getting older and he's slipping here and there. It's okay to admit it. It's not a fucking betrayal to him. I know Lidstrom is having a down year. I get that. But that means hes not a top 5 D. I don't understand why you can admit 1 and not the other. Yeah last year was great but you can't just use those stats and ignore this years. Average both years out and you have a top 10 D but not a top 5 one. In either case this whole thing is my opinion. Why did it warrant this much of a response? BTW if you're going to say that Green is helped by Ovechkin (which he clearly is) then you have to hold Lidstrom to the same standard. Every night Lidstrom plays the other teams best line (which he needs more props for especially since Green doesn't) but the Wings also match their best offensive line with the opposing teams best line too. That means most of the time Lidstrom is playing with Datysuk and Zetterberg. Dat and Z are the 2 best defensive forwards in the league & the 2 best 2 way forwards in the league & the 2 best puck possession forwards in the league. That means that when Lidstrom is on the ice he has 2 amazing forwards that are helping him play D and 75% of their shifts (made up number but it sounds reasonable) are played in the offensive zone. I think this helps Lidstrom just as much as Green gets helped by Ovechkin. People can keep attacking me but it's just a comment on a blog. It's nothing to get this mad about where you publicly attack me. It's an opinion. Use facts and data (or logic) to prove me wrong. Don't just say "you're a tool and GFY". Come on this is a little absurd. Kyle what other proof is there besides stats? It's ridiculous to say stats don't matter especially when you don't know what these mean. These guys are professionals. They know how to adjust stats to make them meaningful.

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February 13, 2010
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Keith B said:

... Walt, then give me a stat saying Lidstrom is better than Green. You can't just look at rings because 1. the Wings organization won them not just Lidstrom and 2. Green is in his 4th NHL season. Lidstrom didn't have a cup in his first 4 years. The whole stats can mean anything line is bogus. It's used by people that are on the wrong side of stats to dismiss them. It's equal to what the anti-global warming lunatics use against science. Well stats don't mean anything. Uhm, no. Some stats (like +/- and ERA) are poor stats but that doesn't mean they don't mean anything or that there aren't good stats out there.

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February 13, 2010
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kuick said:

... Kuick, Okay Hamimus was a bad call I admit it. But thanks for the oh so helpful comment. Kyle's saying that by watching Doughty play in the OHL he knows that Doughty won't be an elite D. I don't know why but I think I'm going to trust Yzerman and his selection of Doughty on team Canada more than Kyle. What more does Doughty need to do to prove he's elite? Green didn't make team Canada.... Also I was referring to this paragraph Kyle wrote: Mike Green is a perfect example of why +/- is a terrible stat. Keith points out that he's a +27 (now a +2. Plus-minus is only useful in context. Mike Green almost always plays with Ovechkin, and Ovechkin is +15 ahead of Green. Jeff Schultz is a second pairing defenseman and he is +10 above Green. Elite defenseman are always, always head and shoulders their teams best +/- player. The Capitals don't have a singular regular player in the minuses. On a team boasting a whopping EIGHT players in the pluses, Lidstrom is a +20. Plus-five ahead of Brian Rafalski (second place) and +8 ahead of third place, some Selke-winner named Pavel Datsyuk. Who? But to be perfectly fair, one of those eight players in the pluses is Kris Newbury. Oh wait...

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February 13, 2010
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KyleKujawa said:

... Wow. I'm dragging it out? You just wrote more than I did. You're not the only one ragging on Lidstrom. The post was overall the point of what happens every time Detroit loses a close game. People start blaming Nick (the popular choice this year), questioning Babcock, calling out the stars... When it's just perfectly acceptable to me to admit the Wings played the better game and got unlucky in the NHL's equivalent of a coin toss (shootout) and got robbed by a good goaltender. I don't understand how you can say I'm being hyper-sensitive to Nick when I've admitted all along he's having an off year. You're the one who's having trouble coping with anyone who disagrees that he's not a top ten D. Isn't it possible for the best defenseman in the league (coming INTO this year) to still be elite even if he's taken a step back? I think that's just how much better Nick was than everyone else. I wouldn't give him the Norris (because his play in the first three months was not where it is now) but I would keep him in the elite first group with Shea Weber, Zdeno Chara, and Duncan Keith (though he gets bailed out every day by Brent Seabrook). Apparently, you can't live knowing I think that way. Also: read. I said Doughty won't be an elite DEFENSIVE defenseman, and I said he's already way better than I thought he'd be at this age. His defensive play is passable, leaps and bounds above Mike Green, but he makes a fair amount of mistakes, as is normal for a 20 year old defenseman. You're talking about his merits as a defenseman better than Lidstrom, which is just stupid, because he's 20. But if you're going to take a shot at my eye for talent by saying, "well, Yzerman put him on Canada" than this whole thing is pointless because Mike Green is not on team Canada. Game set match? Please don't tell me what I can and can't write on this blog. My blog, as it is. There is absolutely nothing I am not allowed to write about, I have no accountability here (there's a whole ethical debate in itself on that though, which I don't want to get into). This is what struck me as interesting after the game. It's entirely related to a point, the point I've been harping on all season: fans this irrational are driving me crazy. One loss and all I read is negativity and cynicism. We lost, so Lidstrom must be having an off game. If he makes two mistakes in a week, he's having a bad year. It's boring, and it's easy. To me, it's harder to look at a loss and take out the good, but that's what I'm trying to do with myself this season. Maybe you don't know how Twitter works, but when you start your tweets with "@BDS_Blog" you're sending them to me. It's a public tweet, but it's directed to me. It's not like I was reading your stuff and attacked you unprovoked. You're going out of your way to make sure I see the 10-12 thoughts you have each game, so I don't know why you're making such a big deal out of me actually responding to one. "It's used by people that are on the wrong side of stats..." Wrong, sorry. Here's why: I didn't even read your posts. I saw numbers and abbreviations and I got a headache. It's the same reason I'm a Communications major. I'm just not good at numbers and it IS very easy to only pick out numbers that support your points. I know you're in college too and you've probably taken more research classes than I have, but I've taken a couple. What I've taken out of them is you cannot blindly believe all the numbers you read because they are easy to manipulate and there is plenty of unethical research out there. Always check your sources. But that's not what I like about hockey. How often do you see me giving you in-depth statistical analysis? That's just not my strength -- I'm a words guy, I find that stuff boring even when related to hockey. While you were digging those numbers up I could have watched a period or two of a Washington game. I just don't believe that numbers can trump my own observations, and from the results of the poll on the right (since you love numbers so much) where others echo my own observations. Numbers are fine, but I just can't be convinced of something through numbers that I've thought about at length. Everytime I watch Washington I'm very closely watching Green's play in his own end. And these are the stats that I (and I think I speak for Walt, too) need to prove that Lidstrom is better than Green: Better yet -- I have two. Walt might even have an eye or two. I'm impressed that you're able to find your statistical backing but I'm giving you things that Lidstrom does well and Green does not do well. Rather than complaining that nobody else is using Prospectus or Behindthenet or any of those crazy stat sites, why don't you tell us, in your observations, the things that Green does defensively that doesn't make him a liability. Because of all the Caps games I've seen, I've never seen that in him.

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February 13, 2010
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waltdetroit1 said:

... KB - It's just that stats can be used to prove either side - as with your global warming thing, there are scientists on both sides of that argument, and both use stats. I don't mean to say stats aren't useful, only that they measure specifics and not the not an entirety of a set of skills, the all-around player. The determination for the best D is subjective as you consider all of the stats, other variables, and intangibles, and weigh them accordingly. I stand behind the awards thing as that stat "proves" that the writers, coaches, other players all believed Lids was either the best or 1 the top 3 D in the league. It also proves consistancy of skill and effort over a long period of time. I think that many look at Lids skill, which has diminished a bit. not as what he actually does on the ice but that he isn't what he used to be. The mistakes stand out because we are not used to seeing any. Also He is often referred to as 1 of the smartest players too. I still don't get your point. Maybe Lids isn't on his best game this year nor top 5 in stats. Every team would want him though for the intangibles and what doesn't get measured. I would still place him around the top 5. No he doesn't have the stats but to be the best in the league but that is part him & part the team. The stats you quote do prove Green's worth, albeit in a different role. I like Green, he's young and most D reach the peak of skills until older. Green plays in a different, more offensive attacking system. I live 2 blocks from the phone booth and go to Caps games whenever I can and or watch them all on TV. Green's stats for +/- were not great last year. and after the playoffs, many called for him to be traded while the Caps could get a lot for him. His nomination last year a lot of hype or acknowledgement as no D had scored so many goals and his goal streak. This year He is very prone to lapses in his own end when pressured that don't show up in stats. (Ex. a pitcher who has 200 strkeouts but 250 walks. Not every walk scores, so it does not show up in the pitchers ERA.) If I was going for a Cup with a great team - let's say Vancouver or LA (name your team)- and you could trade for 1 D without losing any players, who would it be, Lids or Green?

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February 13, 2010
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Baroque said:

... On stats - yes, statistics can be found to prove anything in either direction, the key is finking the PROPER STATS FOR THE JOB. To say something like "this past January had the highest global temperature on record" is a legit argument in favor of global warming, while "there is three feet of snow in Washington DC" is an illegitimate argument against global warming because one is an appropriate measure (global conditions) and one is an inappropriate measure (short-term, local weather condition). Here Don Cherry compares Dion Phaneuf to Nick Lidstrom: http://www.kuklaskorner.com/in.../comments/ how_don_cherry_refers_to_norris_trophy_winner_nick_lids trom/ He implied that Phaneuf was better because he had more fights and more hits and more penalty minutes than Lidstrom. The numbers are undeniable, but the question is "do you measure how good a defenseman is by how many fights he has?" Clearly Cherry thinks that is part of the equation, at least - but does not look at minutes played, quality of competition faced, plus-minus, or any of a number of other statistics that can be used to measure how good a player is at playing hockey. Clearly some people think that "goals scored" is the most appropriate way to evaluate quality of a defenseman, and others have different ideas. That is why smart hockey people are looking at shot location and quality and scoring chances and corsi numbers and quality of competition and quality of linemates and power play time and penalty killing prowess and all kinds of other numbers in an attempt to figure out which are the most accurate at describing the situation in words of "this player is a better defenseman than this other player." Stats aside, Lidstrom is all-world over the course of his career - I had a discussion with an Oiler fan who figured that they should just keep giving the Norris to him until he retires, he's that much better than anyone else - and Green has a lot of potential and flash, but right now hemorrhages chances against and with a lower-scoring team would be seen as an irresponsible player who hurts the team because he isn't in position defensively. He is young and will get better, but he isn't there yet.

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February 13, 2010
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waltdetroit1 said:

	... Good old Grapes, how I miss HN in CN. His rates/weighs his intangibles as 1) is he Canadian, 2) does he fight, 3) is he Canadian. Oh and most of all, Cherry rates players highly if they are Canadian. You gotta love the guy as he has stuck to his guns for decades.
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February 13, 2010
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Scottwood said:

... I love stats and I think Kyle said that Lidstrom was the best defensive D-man in the game. So, Keith B, you should be familiar with this article by James Mirtle not too long ago: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/globe-on-hockey/the-nhls-top-defensive-defencemen/article1448148/ If you like stats, you also should know that you need to look at multiple stats and multiple years and you cannot just cherry pick stats like you were doing. That is intellectually dishonest, especially b/c you are posting it in an argument with people who do not know how the stats are calculated or what they mean. Therefore, you can get away with how you use your stats. But, if we are going to cherry pick some stats and only want to look at one of them, then here you go... http://www.behindthenet.ca/2009/gvt.php?sort=14&mingp=&team=&pos=D He looks like he is a top 5 D-man in Tom Awad's ranking system. If you are going to use stats in an argument, use them correctly and show both sides. And, use multiple stats and multiple years.

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February 13, 2010
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