|
I'm getting a lot of positivity on this so far and I was pleased to see that the second edition of this feature drew so many positive responses. I've got an e-mail inbox littered with questions, and I'm hoping to get them all done this weekend. In the mean time, keep sending stuff in via e-mail or the contact page up top. Let's roll.
Almost half of the e-mails I got were about prospects, so I'm going to dedicate this edition to just those questions and save the NHL/other related ones for this weekend.
Andrew sent me quite the doozy of a question, a five-parter about all different types of prospects. His e-mail has been waiting the longest, so we get rolling on this one first.
My first question is concerning Brendan Smith. Basically, I'm wondering if you think he can be NHL ready next year. Obviously most of us are looking to find a way to replace Lidstrom's point production if not his overall game. Can Smith be that kind of player?
I wrote a little bit in the first mailbag where I outlined that I do think Smith can be NHL ready, and I think for a player like him, he might be better off swapping in and out with Jakub Kindl and Jonathan Ericsson instead of playing riding the bus in the AHL.
I wouldn't be upset at all if he started in the AHL, though. He's a converted forward so his defensive game is still lacking, and at the college level, he could get away with ignoring positioning because he was fast enough to basically chase the puck, and get back if he got burned. I just don't think this is a skill he'll ever be that great at, though, so that's why I'd say no on the Nick Lidstrom comparison. As far as I'm concerned, he already thinks the game and moves the puck at an NHL level. He'd make most teams right out of college and is just the victim of what will likely be a crowded Detroit roster (whether or not Derek Meech is traded) and his less-than-friendly 6th/7th defenseman cap hit ($875,000).
Long-term, I think Smith is going to be a tremendous point producing defenseman that will be able to step right in on the top powerplay whenever he gets up to the NHL. I say when because I have a lot of confidence that his off-ice incidents are limited to his experience at college, and he doesn't actually have a drinking problem as I've seen others suggest. I also think he'd benefit from playing a year with Lidstrom, should this be #5's last year, but either way I'm really happy to see how confident he is in his abilities after three years in college. Detroit or Grand Rapids, he finished his college career like he was ready for a new challenge, so he could be in line for a big year.
--
Andrew's next question is similar to one I got from Jeff at the newly constructed Brendan Smithsonian Institution. I'll try to answer them together.
Andrew: Next up is Tomas Tatar. Obviously he completely skipped going back to juniors last year, and he had a fairly decent year last year. Just how long do you think he stays in Grand Rapids before making the jump to the big club. And what caliber player do we have here? Top three? Top six? More likely a third liner?
Jeff: Tomas Tatar has to make this team for the 11/12 season, right? Kid seems to talented to stay in the minors too much longer.
Tatar is the most talented player I've seen out in Grand Rapids in the third, going on fourth, year that I've lived out in the area. That isn't saying that much, given that even when the Griffins have been good, their strength has been on the backend and in net courtesy of Jimmy Howard and Daniel Larsson. Beyond that, he's clearly one of the most offensively skilled in the league, despite being the youngest player in it last season, and hardly a game goes by where you don't see an instance or two of this. Before I continue fawning over him, that's part of the problem -- he didn't have a strong finish to the season, and it didn't help that he was a healthy scratch a few times down the stretch when Curt Fraser was trying to play young players. Either way, Fraser doesn't give rookies a ton of ice time until he can trust them at both ends (ask Jan Mursak, Logan Pyett, or, gulp, Dick Axelsson) so the fact that Tatar was on the top line for a few months of the middle of the season bodes well for his ice time this year.
While preference might be to Mursak or Cory Emmerton, players who have to clear waivers next season, or Mattias Ritola (should he end up there) for injury call-ups, it's going to be hard for Detroit to ignore Tatar this season if he scores like he was in December and January. I think he's capable of leading this team in scoring, which, to answer both of your questions, could mean a permanent home in the NHL in 2011-12
The sophomore slump is something that I unfortunately believe in, so we'll see how he does. He should be out of Fraser's rookie doghouse and in the lineup full-time -- and with the roster crunch in GR focused more on the bottom six lines among the team's checking prospects -- he should be on the top lines with AHL veterans and proven big point scorers Chris Minard and Jamie Johnson (who are on two-year deals, for the record, which is something I didn't realize for about a week after they signed) and Mursak, who Tatar had chemistry with last season.
He projects that way into the NHL, in my opinion. He's compared to Jiri Hudler, but I think he could be even better. He's quicker than Hudler and he's better in traffic, despite being undersized (but a little bit bigger). Even though Hudler has a good shot, Tatar is a more natural scorer and just has a better nose for the net -- just as creative as Hudler, but probably not as patient at this point. They're similar players to just sit and watch, and it's very, very easy to picture Tatar on the wing of Henrik Zetterberg or Pavel Datsyuk in two years -- conveniently, when Hudler becomes an unrestricted free agent.
---
Back to Andrew for question three of five.
My next two questions are about the future of our goalie situation. First, just what can we expect from Jordan Pearce? I know he was a free agent signing just to see what he can do. I know he will likely wind up back at college to be a doctor if this doesnt work out. But just how likely is it that Pearce can even hit the Wings roster?
I was pretty familiar with Pearce since I saw a lot of Notre Dame games, as the CCHA is fairly well represented throughout the season on FSN and sometimes even BTN or ESPNU. He was their starter for two years, and I would have ranked him among the better goalies in the conference (statistically speaking, he was the best) -- an impressive feat given the solid number of drafted goalies. I always felt like he'd get a chance at the professional level, and I was happy to see that it was Detroit, despite my background as a Michigan fan.
I like his ability. There's nothing really holding him back -- he's well-rounded, and just needs to take it to the next level. He's big, and he's got a quick glove, but it's necessarily the best from side-to-side. I didn't get a chance to see him with Toledo this year, so I'm not really sure how his game changed under his first year with Jim Bedard. His numbers were not that great in his first professional season, but the ECHL is high scoring, so a GAA above 3.00 doesn't mean the same thing as it does in the NHL or AHL. He just didn't get a chance at the AHL, which is where he'll have to prove himself before they'd ever think about giving him a new contract. Unfortunately, this is the second of his two-year deal coming up, so he can't afford the same slow start to the season if he wants to get a shot with the Griffins bringing in an AHL veteran like Joey MacDonald.
I'm not sure how much of a fair shot they'll give him, given that their eggs are now heavily in Thomas McCollum's basket with Larsson's future in limbo. For now, I would say he is definitely last on the goaltending depth chart, and the situation doesn't look like it will work out in his favor. Unless he really proves he doesn't belong in the ECHL (like he began to do at the end of last season), he might stay there all season. I wouldn't say a new contract is out of the question if he has a strong season -- but like you say, he has a backup plan, and he might just enroll in med school if he feels like he's not going to ever get the chance to prove himself to the NHL with a regular job in the AHL.
---
More goaltending from Andrew:
Off of that question, I'm wondering what we might expect from Petr Mrazek in the next few years. I know the plan is most likely for Larsson to come back up Howard (unless Osgood doesn't retire, or Larsson doesnt come back) next year. McCollum could be looking at NHL time in 2-3 years, maybe more. And I also know that goalies take much longer to mature than most other players. With that said, is Mrazek a potential Red Wing?
For starters, I'm an optimist. We don't have any prospect that I will ever say "will never be Red Wings." Very few of them will, especially in terms of permanent jobs, but I don't say never unless I've watched a player at length and they just have too much to overcome. I do often say, "they can be an NHL player if they improves this skill and this skill," which is the case with most, if not all, of our current prospects.
I haven't seen Mrazek play, so I can't make strong assertions to him. I do follow the OHL so I've read a fair bit about him, and from everything I've read, there's no reason to believe he can't be considered a legitimate goaltending prospect. The only thing playing against him is he didn't become his team's clear starter until the playoffs, but when he did, he looked like one of the best goalies in the OHL. He's a little on the smaller side, but he sounds very quick and active in his net, and he said at prospect camp that he loves to play the puck and get involved -- something that's not a strength with any goaltender in the organization, even Howard and Osgood.
I can speak more to his timeframe. He's a 1992-born, so he'll need to spend at least two more years in the OHL. With his emergence, his team in Ottawa has two legitimate starting goalies -- the other, Chris Perugini, has won 25 games in two straight seasons, and is a 1991-born so he could also play two more years -- basically, one could get moved for more help up front. This means that if Mrazek plays well enough to earn a contract, he can turn professional when McCollum is in his fourth and last waiver exempt season with the Griffins. That means Detroit will need to make a decision on him following that season for an NHL job. Ideally, you want Howard and Larsson to be proven commodities by that point, so you can trade a somewhat young goalie, NHL ready goalie for additional assets. Either way, Mrazek doesn't have many obstacles that he can't control (that is to say, if he plays well, there won't be anyone in his way) should he continue to assert himself as one of the OHL's best and deserve a chance to play in the AHL. After that, the Wings will have time to develop him for 3-4 years, but when Mrazek is 24 and needs a decision (six seasons from now), Howard will be 32, so it's impossible to project what the picture will look like.
---
This is getting long, so the last one for Andrew is after the jump, in addition to questions from others about Brian Lashoff, Teemu Pulkkinen, and more on Thomas McCollum.
Lastly, this one is a bit more in depth. I was wondering if you could talk about amd rate the defensive outlook of the Wings in the next few years. With Lidstrom leaving (probably next year) and Rafalski getting up there in age this leaves Kronwall and Stuart to be the most likely top pairing defenseman. The main point im wondering about is between Ericsson, Kindl, Smith, Lashoff, Almqvist, and Nicastro do we have a bright future? And do we have any Lidstromesque (To be a defensive focal point and to carry this team to the Stanley Cup) possibilities?
I would say that we absolutely have a bright future on the blueline given that we've primarily drafted forwards over the past few years. But to be blunt, there are no Lidstroms here. There's no Lidstroms anywhere. We need a replacement for him, but when you think about it, very few teams have a true #1 defenseman. That might be the case (and it might feel like more of a problem since most people can't remember a life without Lidstrom) for a few seasons after he's gone, but I have faith that Niklas Kronwall, Brad Stuart, and Brian Rafalski will make a solid "top three," with Kronwall the best bet to be a #1 since his defensive game has come so much further than I ever thought it would.
Since you asked for specifics, I'll just give you a quick opinion on potential of the guys you named.
Jonathan Ericsson -- at one time, I would have said he has top pairing potential, but now I think he's got too far to go. He has very interesting tools -- big size, hard shot, good puck carrying ability, and good mobility. To his credit, defenseman with those skills tend to peak later -- Zdeno Chara for example. I'm not comparing Ericsson to him, but I will say that Ericsson can be a very good top four defenseman if he shoots more and adds strength. He tends to rely on his reach too much right now. He isn't that great positionally, but he was much better in the second half of the season. This is a big season for him though, it's the difference between moving into the top four when Lidstrom retires in a season or two, or moving at the deadline should Jakub Kindl and/or Brendan Smith jump him on the depth chart.
Jakub Kindl -- He has top pairing potential, but struggled too much in the AHL to say he's a lock. Decision-making continues to be a problem, but he has the puck skills of a top pairing defenseman and the size to be better in the defensive zone. His defensive play has come a long way, but he's not the stud some (myself included) thought he was when he made a strong impression at training camp as a 19-year-old.
Brendan Smith -- The player I'm most excited for. Talked about him earlier obviously, and I think he can be a #1 in this league (compared to who other teams call a #1 defenseman, not compared to what Lidstrom does) if he can learn to play more positionally in his own end. The biggest problem with his play is that he knows where he should be, but up until this point, hasn't felt the consequences of doing things the wrong way and just chasing the puck. But as far as skating, overall speed, shooting (not as fast as Ericsson, but he's smarter with it), and moving the puck, he's probably the best on this list in each.
Brian Lashoff -- Confusing to me. More impressive in the AHL than the OHL. This will be a big season if he can earn regular minutes from the beginning of the season and get in there with the likes of Logan Pyett and Sergei Kolosov on the depth chart. Not a lot of top pairing potential, but he has the tools of a very good second pairing guy. Mobile, big, a little physical and mean, and a good puck mover. He does all of those things well, but none of them great. Probably a little like Brad Stuart at this point, but needs to emulate that type of work ethic every night to become close to that. Not bad for a player who was not drafted.
Adam Almqvist -- A specialist. He's very small but his offensive skills and hockey sense are top notch. He could grow to be something close to Kronwall size, so he's not quite as small as most people think (since he was listed at 5'10, 140 before his draft year). Amazing for a 7th rounder to move into the SEL at 19. I'm very excited to see what he can do with a full season and an appearance for Sweden at the WJC, but from what I hear he isn't that physical in his own end. I see him as a guy who plays a lot of powerplay minutes, but fills that #4/#5 role at even strength depending on how good he is in his own zone.
Max Nicastro -- I think he's a guy who's a bit underrated, but I've only seen him twice. Like Lashoff, he's good at everything and great at nothing. He already plays in all situations but he projects more as a second pairing guy, who could play on the top PK and second powerplay. Offensive skills aren't elite, but they're there -- just need some polishing.
I think Pyett, Kolosov, and Nick Jensen are all on the right track to be bottom pairing guys some day, but this group I detailed are definitely the ones to keep a close eye on. All of them have skill sets of top four defenseman, it's just a matter of getting bigger and finding consistency. Ideally, you'd hope one of them just jumps to that next level and becomes that go-to, top pairing guy, but it's difficult to suggest who the most likely to do that will be. The future is definitely bright, but you'll never replace a Lidstrom.
---
Thanks for all the excellent questions, Andrew. Let's keep the prospect talk rolling with Jordan from Eight Legged Freaks. He's curious to hear a little more about Lashoff, so I'll briefly touch on that since I wrote a bit about him in the last question.
What do you think of this kid? I read nothing but good things about his time spent with my home town Frontenacs, and was just wondering if he looks like he'll ever evolve into a top four defenseman in the near future?
From all accounts, Smith has Raffi's job, and having no idea how Lashoff plays (defense-first? offensive?) I have no idea where he projects to show up in the line-up.
This is a good place to elaborate on what I mean when I say Lashoff looks better in the AHL than OHL. With Kingston, he's a minute-munching machine who plays in all situations and served, but, he didn't put up exceptional offensive numbers. For two straight seasons, he came to the Griffins on a tryout after his OHL season ended (typically early, Kingston hasn't been good in his tenure there). Last year, he put up five points in six games with Grand Rapids and then five in eight more playoff games, and then he added another two assists in six games this year. I was at two of those games, though, and he was all over the ice, pinching in the offensive zone and creating chances. To make this even more confusing, he was used as a #6/#7 defenseman for the United States at the WJC this year in a shutdown role. Barely touched the puck at all, but looked good taking it away from Taylor Hall in the gold medal game.
Since it's such a small sample size, I'm inclined to think he's defense first, but part of him putting up more numbers, and just looking like an offensive defenseman, could be playing with better players who compliment his strong puck moving ability and mobility. He doesn't need to worry about nobody covering for him when he takes a risk.
That creates an interesting storyline to follow in Grand Rapids this year. If Lashoff plays with someone like Smith, he might be forced to play that role again because Smith is the one who needs the puck, but his numbers could benefit from that. If he plays with Kolosov, a defensive defenseman, he might be able to join the rush more and contribute the kind of points he put up last year. I tend to think this reflects well on his balanced, overall game, but I've wondered on more than one occasion what reasonable expectations are for his first full AHL season, and I just don't know -- but I'm certainly excited to find out.
---
Next up is Chalem, curious about the future of a new Red Wing.
I'm pretty exited about the Wings draft this year, especially because of Teemu Pulkkinen. Are Kenny Holland ana Jim Nill just that much smarter than all the other GM's, or is Pulkkinen a big risk due to his myriad of injuries?
Also, realistically, how good of a player could he become if he tops out his potential. I see him as a 40-45 goal scorer to go along with 90 or so points, with some Brett Hull and Stamkos in him. Is that too hopeful?
There are a few prospects in the system that fit this description, but if you were to call just one prospect a "boom or bust" it's Pulkkinen. I saw a few games of him at the U18s last summer, and if you told me that this was the player the Wings would drafted in the 4th round the following year, all of my organs would have failed on the spot. He was just that good. One of the best players on the ice, every shift, in a tournament that involved players who went in the top three rounds of the 2009 draft almost exclusively. And if you've read my prospects stuff before, you know what a big deal I make about those key 16-22 year old years as crucial to development. Sixteen-year-olds just shouldn't compete with 17-year-olds like that, but he was dominant at times.
As much as I'd love to tell you that Kenny and Jim are just geniuses, you just can't say that. If they liked him so much and knew he was so good, why did they wait until the 4th to take him? Despite how much I liked him then, even the fact that we got him in the 4th instead of the 2nd or the 3rd worries me even more. The U18 tournament is heavily scouted, I can guarantee you personally that all 30 teams had scouts there. Everyone saw what I did. That makes it even worse that they saw that, then watched him put up 41 points in 17 games (that is not a typo) in the Finnish U20 league and then 15 in six more at the same U18 tournament a year later, and passed on him. They passed on him 110 times.
It's just not good to be a small player with the kind of injury resume that he already has. A knee injury of some sort, a broken wrist, and a separated shoulder. All three of which required surgery. Three surgeries for an 18-year-old player who is small, and plays small. And when I say that, I mean he doesn't play like he's durable. Tomas Tatar is small, but he plays big. He welcomes contact and goes into traffic to find the puck -- not afraid to pay the price to make the play. Pulkkinen can fend off contact when he has the puck -- he's actually pretty stocky -- but a criticism on him is his play when he doesn't have the puck and his preference to just find open ice and not get his nose dirty and get the puck for himself -- which he could, because he's talented. Three big injuries will make him even more hesitant to do that.
So that's what you worry about. He was still ranked in the second round almost everywhere (except for NHL scouts lists, I guess), so you get to a certain point in the draft where you take a gamble on these players. I really like where Detroit took him, and I'm very excited to see how he recovers from the shoulder surgery he just had and starts what should be a full season in the top Finnish men's league -- no more junior leagues where he can rack up 41 points in 17 games. You just hope that his three separate, and severe enough to require surgery, injuries were a freak occurrence. I try to be positive, so this was my favorite pick in the draft, but to be honest, in the years that I've been following prospects I've learned that it's usually not just bad luck, some guys are just snakebit, and it's easier to get re-injured after you've gone through it once. Secondly, guys who fall, fall for a reason. I've seen very few instances where a player has fallen a full round or two and then worked his way back to prove everyone wrong. But, that just makes it even easier to root for him.
That said, if he makes it, the ceiling is high for him. He's not a two-way player who will play on your second or third line and chip in. He is your goal scorer -- the guy who plays on the top line and scores 30-40 a year. He stays healthy, and the Wings have one of the five best players from that draft, guaranteed. The Wings know that too, but when they still wait 111 picks to jump on that, you know even they have some concerns. Boom or bust, for sure.
---
The final question is a two-parter from Matt. Matt's second question isn't prospect related, so I'm going to save it for next time because it's similar to another one I got.
Thomas McCollum, slated to be the Wings up-and-coming goalie. I am seeing a lot of shades of Jimmy's old inconsistencies in him. Was great in junior, but faired poorly at the World Junior Championships. Then he goes to the AHL and gets lit up for the first half of the season before regaining some of his form. Is he just young and it's the normal learning curve? Any fears that he might not be the goalie we're hoping for? Too early to tell? What do you think about his play?
I've touched on him a few times here, so I'll keep this short. First, I would put very little stock in his performance at the WJC. The US has struggled to produce the kind of defenseman that Canada, and even Sweden, have produced, and especially the year that McCollum manned the net, it was filled with undersized puck-movers who just could not clear the zone. It definitely hurt McCollum's confidence, but he got very little help all tournament long. I don't put much stock into goaltending performances there.
The WJC helps vault players into the upper echelon of prospect talent, but when you look at some of the "top goaltenders" from recent years -- Justin Pogge, Al Montoya, Carey Price, Steve Mason (this year, anyway), Marek Schwarz, Kari Lehtonen, Tomas Duba, David Aebischer going back a bit further -- almost none are elite. The exceptions to this rule in recent memory are Marc-Andre Fleury, who famously lost a game for Canada, and Tuukka Rask, who only has one season and one playoff under his belt. The point is, WJC success, or lack of it, does not have anything to do with NHL success.
That said, McCollum's first AHL season was troublesome. Some of it can be chalked up to the learning curve, and being on a Griffins team that was among the league's worst for most of the season. I'd be lying to you if I didn't say he could have been better though. It's tough for me to say what it was specifically because I'm not a goalie. I still believe he has the tools of someone who can be elite though, because he's big, quick, has a great glove, and has tremendous athleticism for when he needs it. This will be a huge year for him so he can get the bulk of the starts over Joey MacDonald. I would say right now, it's too early to tell. I would be concerned if he's as inconsistent as he was last year -- he needs to be a legitimate AHL starting goaltender so he can get three solid years in before he's potentially needed in the NHL.
---
Phew, all finished. Great questions -- always glad to see an interest in prospects. I've got enough to do another one of these hopefully later this weekend, but I always encourage more to get sent in since it inspires me to stay on top of these. There was a good discussion on the last post, so hopefully this one will lead to some interesting things as well.
|