Three guys who have M last names
Written by Kyle Kujawa   
Wednesday, 07 July 2010 00:38

Detroit Red Wings defenseman Derek Meech (14) clears the puck against the Washington Capitals in the 1st period at the Verizon Center in Washington on January 19, 2010. UPI/ Mark Goldman
Babcock's Death Stare: The first blog to feature Derek Meech doing something cool.

Drew Miller. Derek Meech. Mike Modano.

If you asked anyone three years ago who they would rather have on their team for one season to help them win a Cup, not only would 100% of the responses be Modano, but 70% would have slugged you right in the lungs for wasting your time with such a stupid question. Three years later, to most it seems that the answer is still obvious -- though not everyone would punch you in the stomach, mostly because people are nicer now than they were three years ago. I looked it up.

All three were in the news today. Let's recap.

Today, Drew Miller signed a one-year deal worth $625,000. Quite low, in my opinion. Miller proved his worth as a serviceable NHL player who can excel in a penalty kill role and look fairly decent on any line.

Today, or really late last night, Derek Meech applied for arbitration. Prompting this hilarious tweet from me that nobody retweeted, jerks. But seriously, I don't understand what he stands to gain. He played 8-10 minutes a night when Detroit is comfortably ahead. He plays 2-4 minutes when the game is in question, even if it means nothing in the grand scheme of the standings. How can a team want to retain a player that they have so little trust in?

Today, Mike Modano took in a Tigers game with quite a few members of Detroit's brass. The Ilitches, Ken Holland, Mike Babcock, and apparently, Mike Babcock's dad. The real story here is that we can finally end the rumors that Mike Babcock is his own father. But a sub-plot to all of that is Modano ended the rumors that started earlier in the day that he may have had other teams calling for him, including Chicago, with some rave reviews about Detroit and a very clear bottom line: Detroit or retirement.

And in my mind, the article is very telling. Modano is heading to Motown, and he's doing it soon. I could be reading too much into these quotes, but at least it's some food for thought.

"The last couple of years have been tough and they've taken a toll on me, mentally more than anything else," he said. "Physically, I still feel fine and I can play, but you have to try and get that excitement back about playing."

And then the quote immediately following it:

"If I could get it here, it's probably a given with the talent and the type of team they have. To be able to go out winning another Stanley Cup, that would be phenomenal."

He just sounds ridiculously excited at the prospect of going to a contender. He's been told his role and he mentions nothing about being unhappy with the term or dollar amount of the potential deal. To me, this sounds like a player who is getting mentally recharged right now. This is a player who's never had another team pursue him. Perhaps that's part of a reason he won't sign -- because there's a certain shot of pride to playing your whole career with one team. More importantly, in my opinion, there's pride to be had in going out on your own terms, which is why I think he will take this deal.

But, there are problems. Problems that make some suggest Ken Holland is just playing some sick game to see how many players he can get and still be under the cap. But, providing all RFAs sign, it leaves something like this.

Henrik Zetterberg | Pavel Datsyuk | Tomas Holmstrom
Todd Bertuzzi | Valtteri Filppula | Johan Franzen
Jiri Hudler | Mike Modano | Danny Cleary
Justin Abdelkader | Darren Helm | Patrick Eaves
Mattias Ritola | Kris Draper | Drew Miller

Nicklas Lidstrom | Brian Rafalski
Niklas Kronwall | Brad Stuart
Jonathan Ericsson | Jakub Kindl
Derek Meech

Three problems:

  • Numbers. That's 15 NHL forwards, 24 NHL players,  and a 15:7 forward defenseman ratio, while Detroit has preferred to carry 8 defenseman and just 13 forwards, usually.
  • Defense. This move doesn't leave cap space or roster space to add the #6/#7 defenseman that Holland stated the team needed prior to free agency.
  • Derek Meech.

However, I have solutions to all three problems. That's why they pay me the big bucks.

There's a number of ways you can trim down the roster. Some people have suggested trading Miller. I did at first, but now I don't think that will happen. The guy just took a discount to stay in Detroit, or otherwise doesn't know what he's worth. If he took a discount, it's because Holland said he'd take care of him. Miller is playing for his hometown club and he's a player who has worn three jerseys in the past two seasons. It's not a long-term contract, but it's another NHL opportunity. He had a career year, he could have gotten more money elsewhere. Holland isn't going to make a player take a discount and trade him within the week.

The easiest way would be to just waive Mattias Ritola. I don't understand where all this concern for his future comes from all of a sudden -- I'm reading it from people who I've never even heard mention the guy. There's nothing to suggest that waiving Ritola wasn't the plan all along -- remember, the three-year extension he signed is a two-way deal for the first season. They didn't just put that in there for kicks and giggles. Clearly, he'll be given the chance to make the team, but it's an option. Holland planned to add another forward all along and nobody had a problem with it until it was Modano.

Look, I'm the prospects nerd and I was ridiculously upset when Detroit signed Ty Conklin with no notice -- it was supposed to be Jimmy Howard's year in 2008-09. Then, Chris Osgood faltered and Conklin was one of the best backup/1B goaltenders in the league. Howard did well in Osgood's "absence" this season, but who's to know if he could have done that the year before, it could have ruined him completely. That taught me to exercise a little patience. That taught me that adding a really solid 3rd line center might be more important than keeping Ritola around as the 14th forward.

And what's this waivers garbage? Ritola will clear waivers. He looks good in the NHL but his sample size is so small, and he hasn't found much consistency in the AHL. He'll be waived in early October when a few dozen other, proven, players will be on waivers, in addition to what looks like could be a deep late season UFA crop because there are just too many free agents for how many jobs will be available. What team who is desperate enough to patch a hole in the first week of the season is going to take a chance on an unproven prospect when they have 50 proven commodities to look at? The Kyle Quincey comparison is ridiculous -- he was an AHL stud who looked great in extended NHL time in Detroit, not just eight games like Ritola.

The most ridiculous thing I read today acknowledged that Modano could be a 40-50 point player, but asked "how will we know if Miller/Ritola can't be that?" Well, I know because I've watched them both play. Neither have that kind of ability. Miller is a hard-working forward and I hope we keep him (I'd prefer Ritola, but neither will upset me), but like Chris said at Motown Wings, he's truly a dime-a-dozen player. Three inches shorter and he's not even in the NHL -- he's got good size, but average legs, average hands, and average creativity. He is smart, so he can excel along the boards and defensively, but he had extended time in the top six and just didn't produce. He's a career bottom six player. He could be good there, but so could a lot of players who are going to be unemployed after this summer. And Ritola never put up those kind of numbers in Grand Rapids, or even low level Swedish leagues -- how will he do that in Detroit?

There's salvaging mortgaging (thanks to voline for pointing out my error) the future to win today (see: Blackhawks, Chicago) and there's solidifying a lineup with a shrewd, low-risk move to win now and in the future. Losing Miller or Ritola is not going to have any bearing on the Red Wings success in the next 15 years. They are both complementary players who, like so many of the young forwards coming up in Detroit's system right now, project to be bottom six players. Both are in their mid-20s, and are already below the likes of the younger Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader on the depth chart -- even Patrick Eaves, who's about the same age. Anyone who's claiming these two players aren't replaceable is just not thinking clearly, in my opinion.

And I like these two. A lot. I'd rather keep them both than Kris Draper, but I know I'm in the minority on that and I understand that keeping Draper for loyalty (not to mention cap, with his 35+ contract) is more important than who makes a difference on the ice. But what I care about more than which players I like, and which players might have 5-10 really good games in a season on the 4th line, is who can win this team a Cup. And more so than the obvious motivation that comes from the opportunity to win a legend like Modano a Cup in his hometown is the fact that Modano fills a need.

Look at that lineup I posted 16 paragraphs ago. Jiri Hudler. Danny Cleary. Those are your wingers, if you load up the two best players and reunite what was one of the best lines in recent hockey history which was inexplicably kept apart for 95% of last season. You have either Modano, a 500 goal scorer who obviously has some gas left in the tank talent-wise, and more importantly, has big time smarts and the ability to really play anywhere on the top three scoring lines, or Abdelkader, a successful scorer in the AHL, but who hasn't shown much playmaking ability in his NHL time, though he has been kept on a tight leash as a checker. I think Abdelkader can be a scorer, but I think this team is much more dangerous when it has a potent second line, and a dud season from Abdelkader will essentially make Hudler useless as he'll have no one to pass to unless Cleary decides he wants to re-find that 2009 playoff consistency, which seems unlikely. Modano isn't the player he was last decade, but he can pass and score and he put up solid numbers on a pretty bad Dallas team last year. He'll have better linemates and more inspiration this season.

If that doesn't convince you, nothing will. I just don't possibly see how anyone wouldn't consider Modano an upgrade over Abdelkader, when Ritola or Miller (or more than likely neither, since Ritola will clear waivers) is your only casualty.

Bringing me to the next two points, which can be combined. In all likelihood, those 24 players I listed earlier will fit under the cap, though it is one player to many on the 23-man roster limit. That creates a problem on the blueline though, since Detroit won't have room to add the depth defenseman they wanted. Seven defenseman is likely enough -- like I said in a previous post, there were more injuries up front than on the blueline this year, so there isn't as dire of a need to carry eight defenseman especially when it means trading one or two solid forwards. The bigger problem is, while I think Jonathan Ericsson has some promise, he didn't look like an NHL regular for large chunks of last season. That leaves a roster with only four legitimate NHL defenseman. It also leaves a third pairing of two players known for a) mental mistakes and b) defensive mistakes. You can switch up the pairings a bit to rectify that, but you've got to believe they want an Andreas Lilja-type for the PK and to log some minutes when we need to keep the puck out of our net.

So, ding, solution. Trade Derek Meech. Trade the heck out of him. Get whatever you can and run. Why was he qualified? Nobody explained this to me -- I certainly didn't okay it. The guy just doesn't play. I think he has some ability, and I think he will catch on with another team, not quite in the Quincey way but in the "bad teams who are desperate for any defenseman that doesn't suck at handling the puck" way. But when you have an overcrowded roster and you're searching for a defenseman that you're calling a #6 or #7 because you don't have confidence in a player who has played 126 games over four seasons to be that player, you've got a problem. And when you're debating getting rid of Miller or Ritola instead, you've got a bigger problem.

Fix that problem. Look at the options that brings up. Assume he isn't traded for a roster player, he's traded for a 7th round pick in the year 3000 -- a steal for Detroit. Right there, boom, you've got a 23-man roster and you've gotten rid of the player on your team who plays the least. Or, you can do one of these, with the first two being the most likely over the second two. Personally, I pick #2.

Scenario 1: You still send Ritola down and Doug Janik becomes that #7 for a sleek $512,500. It would explain why he was given a two-year deal, with the second year being a one-way deal. Janik fills the need for an inexpensive but somewhat reliable bottom pairing defenseman to rotate with Jakub Kindl until he finds his sea legs without burning another contract. He won't play a ton, but he isn't going to cost you the game, and he will step up and fix Ericsson/Kindl's mistakes. He gives you a penalty killer, and he gives you more options to shake up the D pairings.

Scenario 2: You send Ritola down and don't give Janik the #7 spot, opening up roughly $1 million in cap space, which could land you a dependable defenseman. If you assume some figures ($850K for Eaves, $2M split up between Helm/Abdelkader, $1M for Modano) you have $1,174,621 American dollars to find yourself a free agent defenseman. Again, there are too many free agent defensemen for how many teams are seeking them out. These defenseman all made less than $2.5 million last season and some didn't have great years -- meaning if you're looking at a guy desperate for a job in the middle of August, they just may sign for a dollar amount in your price range. Shaone Morrisonn, Paul Mara, Nick Boynton, Brian Pothier, Randy Jones, Garnet Exelby (if you're a fan of toughness and bad defense), Andreas Lilja (oh, uh, hi), Jay McKee, Mike Mottau, Martin Skoula, Freddy Meyer, Aaron Johnson, Shane Hnidy, or Alexandre Picard (just 25). Half of those names will be unsigned by August 15. Most for good reason, but a majority of them will do just fine in a #7 role and all of them are better than Meech.

Scenario 3: Brendan Smith has an impressive enough camp to stick and the three youngsters rotate in and out, but this assumes that all of them, or at least two, will be much more dependable in their own end than they have all shown. Smith has the ability to be a game-breaker and could probably due with the Grand Rapids time, and Detroit's "other" offensive stud youngster coming into the lineup reduces his chances even more.

Scenario 4: You keep 15 forwards and six defenseman (it's not unheard of, and plus, sorry, but someone's going to get hurt eventually and skew those numbers). It will probably hurt you on West Coast trips (if the team is healthy) but both Janik and Smith are just a 2.5 hour drive away if you need a useful defenseman for a home game.

Is my point proven yet? This ended up way longer than I thought it would, but only because I read another piece which seemed to imply without implicitly saying it that signing Modano is just sentimental garbage that is going to screw this team over. If anything, it's giving them more options. I just don't get it how you can't see otherwise.

Let's just hope Modano makes his decision as soon as he seems to think he will so this post isn't entirely pointless. And remember folks, vote Mebdeech in 2012!



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